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SPC Day 4-8 Outlook

Updates are issued at 400 am CST/CDT (0900/1000 UTC) - Current UTC time: Jul 12 2020 10:11 pm


 

Day 1

D4Wednesday Jul 15 2020 - Thursday Jul 16 2020 D7Saturday Jul 18 2020 - Sunday Jul 19 2020
D5Thursday Jul 16 2020 - Friday Jul 17 2020 D8Sunday Jul 19 2020 - Monday Jul 20 2020
D6Friday Jul 17 2020 - Saturday Jul 18 2020 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to:
1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
3) minimal run-to-run continuity.

POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
        

Day 2

Day 3

Largly based on original scripts from Ken True: saratoga-weather.org and Rick Curly: ricksturf.com